The population of the Toronto area is increasing.. so why are the numbers of students in public schools declining?

The Greater Toronto Area is witnessing a remarkable demographic paradox; while the population has increased over the past years, several school boards expect to receive fewer students in the upcoming academic year.

Population growth does not necessarily mean an increase in the number of school-age children, as a large part of the population growth comes from adults, international students, temporary workers, and immigrants who do not bring children, while the proportion of young families is declining in several cities in the region.

In Toronto, the Toronto District School Board expects enrollment to drop from about 232,436 students this year to 227,524 students during 2026-2027, a loss of approximately 4,912 students or 2.1 percent.

Most of the decline is concentrated in elementary schools, which are expected to lose more than 4,100 students, compared to a decrease of about 800 students in secondary schools.

This loss comes after the number of students enrolled this year was about three thousand less than the board’s previous estimates, indicating that the decline is faster than expected.

More population.. but fewer children

The main answer lies in the age composition of the population, not just the total number.

Between 2013 and 2023, the population of the Toronto area increased by about 15 percent, from nearly 5.9 million to 6.8 million people, while student enrollment in the Toronto District School Board decreased by about three percent, from nearly 243,000 to 236,000 students. (TorontoToday.ca⁠)

Data shows that many neighborhoods now have a larger number of adults and seniors, compared to fewer children, with small families remaining in homes that previously housed larger families.

Also, lower birth rates mean that the number of children entering kindergarten and elementary grades is less than the number of students graduating or leaving the school system.

The effect appears first in elementary schools, before gradually moving to secondary schools in subsequent years.

Housing pushes families out of the area

Rising home prices and rents are among the main reasons young families are leaving Toronto and some surrounding cities.

Families needing larger homes and extra rooms face difficulty affording housing costs, which pushes them to move to cities farther from the heart of the Greater Toronto Area, or to other parts of Ontario and Canada.

This leads to population growth inside towers and small apartments, but without a corresponding increase in the number of children, as many new units are occupied by individuals or couples without children.

Some new neighborhoods may experience overcrowding in their schools, while schools in older neighborhoods operate well below capacity, making the picture highly varied from one area to another.

In Halton, the school board attributed the decline to aging neighborhoods and slow growth of new housing projects, despite continued pressure on some schools located within urban expansion areas. (Halton District School Board⁠)

Change in immigration policy

Immigration has long been an important source of student enrollment growth, especially in Toronto, Peel, and York.

However, the federal government’s reduction of temporary residents and international students, along with lowering immigration targets, has led to a decrease in the number of newcomers and their children.

School boards say the decline in newcomers not only reduces student numbers but also decreases funding allocated for English language education and programs related to welcoming newcomers.

A large part of previous population growth also came from international students in colleges and universities and temporary workers, groups that increase the population but do not necessarily add children to schools.

The York Region District School Board confirmed that lower birth rates and changing immigration patterns are among the main reasons behind its expectation of enrollment decline in 2026-2027. (York Region District School Board⁠)

Shift to private schools

The decline is not entirely demographic, as some families choose to move their children from public schools to private or independent schools.

Between 2018 and 2023, enrollment in private schools in Ontario increased by about 11 percent, compared to growth of no more than one percent in the public system.

Private school students made up about seven percent of children in Ontario in 2023, with increased applications and inquiries at several private schools in Toronto for 2026. (TorontoToday.ca⁠)

Officials at these schools indicate that some families seek smaller classes, specialized programs, additional activities, and greater support for children with diverse educational needs.

In contrast, teachers’ unions link this shift to declining resources in public schools, increasing class sizes, and lack of specialized support.

However, comprehensive data is not yet available to determine the percentage of families who left the public system due to education quality, compared to those who moved to another area or chose a different school system for religious or personal reasons.

Where do departing students go?

Data from the Toronto District School Board showed that about 6,750 students left its schools for other institutions during 2024.

About 59 percent of them moved to another school board, 18 percent left for schools outside Canada, while about 16 percent moved to private schools. (TorontoToday.ca⁠)

However, the board usually knows the destination the student moved to but does not systematically collect the reasons that led the family to make the decision.

For this reason, parent representatives have called for exit surveys that ask families directly about their reasons for leaving schools, whether related to housing, education quality, school climate, lack of support, or class sizes.

Declining students means declining funding

The main problem is that a large part of school funding in Ontario is tied to the number of enrolled students.

When enrollment decreases, grants given to the board decline, leading to cuts in the number of teachers, staff, programs, and educational materials.

However, many costs do not decrease at the same rate, as boards remain responsible for heating, maintaining, and operating buildings, even when schools operate at half capacity.

The Toronto District School Board faces this problem clearly, expecting to lose about $48.2 million in total revenue during the next academic year compared to the current year.

Schools with fewer students have also become less able to offer a wide range of elective subjects, activities, and specialized programs.

Not all schools in the region suffer from empty seats; some schools in new neighborhoods are severely overcrowded and use temporary buildings, while thousands of seats remain empty in other areas.

This disparity reveals that the issue is not just a general decline in student numbers, but an increasing mismatch between the locations of existing schools and the neighborhoods where young families choose to live.

Thus, the growth of the Greater Toronto Area population does not actually contradict the decline in school enrollment, because the area has a larger population but a smaller proportion of children, while housing costs, demographic changes, immigration, and education choices push increasing numbers of families away from local public schools.